The Goods: Western Conference Semifinal Preview

04/28/2010 11:52 AM -  Ian Gooding

See also Eastern Conference Semifinal Preview

SAN JOSE SHARKS (1) vs. DETROIT RED WINGS (5)

San Jose

Players to add/start: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski (led the Sharks with five goals in Round 1), Ryane Clowe (eight points tied for the team lead in Round 1),Devin Setoguchi (six points in Round 1), Dan Boyle, Evgeni Nabokov

Possible sleepers: Douglas Murray (five points in Round 1), Manny Malhotra, Torrey Mitchell, Logan Couture (could all benefit if Todd McLellan juggles his lines again), Rob Blake 

Players to avoid/drop: The rest of the Sharks’ roster is players that you would normally avoid anyway. The cynics will definitely say the top line of Heatley, Marleau, and Thornton, who combined for just one goal in Round 1, but that depends on how deep your league is. Nabokov will also need to prove himself in Round 2, although he allowed just four goals in the last four games of the Colorado series.

Detroit

Players to add: Henrik Zetterberg (11 points in Round 1), Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom, Jimmy Howard

Possible sleepers: Valtteri Filppula (seven points in Round 1), Tomas Holmstrom, Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart (six points in Round 1)

Players to avoid: Dan Cleary (no points in Round 1), Jason Williams (healthy scratch for all but one game), Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Jonathan Ericsson

Storyline: It’s the Wings’ proven playoff experience (the Giant Octopus) against the Sharks’ inability to advance past the second round (the Mega Shark?) (I kid you not, this was an actual movie… and you lay awake at night wondering whatever happened to Lorenzo Lamas and Debbie Gibson). Cult flicks aside, both teams experienced their share of struggles in the first round, being down two games to one to a seemingly underdog opponent. The Red Wings were forced to use everything they had against a resilient Coyotes team that forced them to seven games. Meanwhile, the Sharks had to put the errant Dan Boyle own goal from Game 3 behind them and focus on the present and not on the past. After allowing five goals on just 22 shots in Game 2, Evgeni Nabokov was forced to answer questions about his ability to play in the big games. However, he was successfully able to put Game 2 and the Olympic nightmare behind him. Rookie Jimmy Howard was up-and-down during the Phoenix series, but he seemed to settle down after Game 3, aside from allowing five goals in Game 6.

Prediction: Red Wings in 6. This prediction is a total gut feeling on my part, and it will do nothing but add fuel to the Shark doubters out there (and there are plenty). But I’ll do my best to explain why the Red Wings will come away with a victory. Both teams play a puck possession game that they were able to force onto their opponents at crucial times. As a result, this series will showcase more than its share of scoring chances, which could result in a bucketload of scoring for the taking. Zetterberg and Datsyuk should come through with another big series, and there’s no reason to think that experienced vets Lidstrom and Rafalski won’t do the same. Any questions about the Wings not having enough left in the tank were answered in Game 7. Meanwhile, the Sharks’ second line of Pavelski, Clowe, and Setoguchi carried them in their first-round series against Colorado. So where was the top line? In fairness, Heatley was nursing an injury, but how do we explain the other two? Thornton and Marleau have a history of not stepping up their game when other teams do the same, and no team over the last five seasons has proven to be better at stepping up its game at a crucial time than Detroit.  

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (2) vs. VANCOUVER CANUCKS (3)

Chicago

Players to add/start: Patrick Kane (hat trick in Game 6 against Vancouver last season), Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith, Antti Niemi

Possible sleepers: Kris Versteeg, Dave Bolland, Dustin Byfuglien (X-factor against Canucks last season – expect the Hawks to use him as a forward in front of the net), Brian Campbell, Brent Seabrook

Players to avoid/drop: Troy Brouwer (no points in Round 1), Andrew Ladd, John Madden (one point each in Round 1), Tomas Kopecky, Brent Sopel, Niklas Hjalmarsson

Vancouver

Players to add/start: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Mikael Samuelsson (led playoff scorers with seven goals in Round 1), Ryan Kesler, Roberto Luongo

Possible sleepers: Steve Bernier (four goals in Round 1), Pavol Demitra (five points in Round 1), Kyle Wellwood, Christian Ehrhoff, Alexander Edler, Sami Salo, Kevin Bieksa

Players to avoid/drop: Alex Burrows (one goal in Round 1, no longer on the Sedin line), Mason Raymond, Michael Grabner. There will also be lots of Luongo doubters out there, although his confidence seemed to improve after getting pulled in Game 3 of the LA series.

Storyline: This series will be a slobber knocker, no matter how you look at it. This series will have more than its share of running feuds: Luongo vs. Kane, Luongo vs. Byfuglien, Kesler vs. Ladd, and the injured Willie Mitchell vs. Toews, to name a few. The Canucks wanted to play the Blackhawks last season because of the Hawks’ relative experience, but this season the Canucks want to face the Hawks for a different reason: payback. Experience in net will be to the Canucks’ advantage, but do the Hawks hold a psychological advantage over Luongo after he allowed seven goals in Game 6 of last year’s playoff series? Both teams boast three solid lines of forwards, so neither team holds the clear edge. However, the Blackhawks appear to hold a superior blueline to that of the Canucks, who often struggle with opponents in front of Luongo as long as Mitchell is sidelined.

Prediction: Blackhawks in 7. For what it’s worth, the two teams split the season series, although the history that matters is from last year’s playoffs. Right now, the intangibles are in the Hawks’ favour, and it will be up to the Canucks to prove that they can put last year behind them. In order for the Canucks to win the series, the Sedins will need to force their cycle game to allow for lots of scoring chances on the unproven Niemi. Unfortunately, the Sedins don’t usually kill penalties, and the Canucks couldn’t kill a penalty to save their lives in the first round (dead last at 61.5% efficiency). The Hawks will need to expose this shortcoming, although their power-play is surprisingly average given their wealth of big guns and blueline options. If the Hawks can make life miserable for the Canucks’ top players and make the United Center an unwelcome confine, they will win this series (although as a Canucks fan, I hope they don’t!)

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