The Goods: Frolov to NYC, Poni to LA

07/28/2010 1:43 AM -  Ian Gooding

Two of the “remaining” free agents were finally able to find teams on Tuesday. Alexander Frolov switches from West Coast to East Coast by signing with the Rangers, while Alexei Ponikarovsky assumes Frolov’s roster spot on the Kings.

First, let’s discuss the Frolov signing. My good friend Chris Wassel of The Program had this question on his website today:

Just how many points will Alex Frolov get this year playing with Marian Gaborik?

A. Less than 40

B. 41-50

C. 51-60

D. 61-70

E. over 70

To answer that question, let’s examine Frolov’s stats over the past few seasons. We know that the beginning of the end of his time in LA arrived when he landed in coach Terry Murray’s doghouse earlier this season. If Murray plays fantasy hockey, we don’t blame him for pulling his hair out when the subject of Frolov comes up. Over the last four seasons, Frolov’s point totals have declined from 71 points to 67 points to 59 points to 51 points – a 20-point decline overall. Let’s immediately rule out option E – over 70 points.

Now playing alongside Gaborik will be good for a few more points than what Frolov was able to accomplish last season. How many more points will depend on Gaborik’s health, not to mention the Rangers’ so-so offense. Gaborik was responsible for a high percentage of the Rangers’ offense last season, so the Frolov acquisition will need to be better than the failed Olli Jokinen experiment. But I still feel that I should bet the under on 60 points.

Having said that, I am a strong believer in the contract-year theory. Frolov knows that this could be his last kick at the can in the NHL. Let’s face it: The KHL would be his only real option if he fell below the 50-point mark next season. So I’m going to go with C as my final answer: between 51 and 60 points for Frolov as a New York Ranger.

Meanwhile, Ponikarovsky assumes Frolov’s old roster spot in LA (and the spot that was previously reserved for one Ilya Kovalchuk). He should fit in nicely at least on the second line, and Murray should also give him a crack with Anze Kopitar on the Kings’ first line. The Kings are thought of by many to be the breakout team in the Western Conference, so on the surface, Poni’s fantasy value improves with the move (although that’s what I said when he was traded to Pittsburgh).

Ponikarovsky didn’t pan out in Pittsburgh, having scored just two goals and nine points in 16 regular-season games. He was even a healthy scratch for two games during the playoffs this season. Poni is not afraid to use his size and make hits, which could ultimately be beneficial for Kopitar’s numbers if he creates the time and space needed for the Kings’ franchise forward. After scoring a career-high 61 points with the Leafs in 2008-09, Poni fell to 50 points last season. There’s no reason to think that he won’t post a similar total this season.

By the way, we’ve just started the mock draft for this season’s Draft Guide… I’ll tell you that the first pick was Alex Ovechkin. To find out the rest, you’ll just have to purchase the draft guide when it becomes available in August!

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.