The Goods: Eastern Conference Semifinal Preview

04/29/2010 1:40 PM -  Ian Gooding

 

See also Western Conference Semifinal Preview

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (4) vs. MONTREAL CANADIENS (8) 

Pittsburgh

Players to add: Sidney Crosby (led playoff scorers with 14 points in Round 1), Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, Sergei Gonchar (could all benefit from a long playoff run), Marc-Andre Fleury

Possible sleepers: Jordan Staal, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Pascal Dupuis, Matt Cooke, Maxime Talbot, Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski

Players to avoid: Ruslan Fedotenko, Tyler Kennedy (healthy scratches for games during Round 1), Brooks Orpik (no points in Round 1), Jordan Leopold (injury), Jay McKee

Montreal

Players to add: Mike Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec, Jaroslav Halak

Possible sleepers: Andrei Kostitsyn (six points in Round 1), Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Andrei Markov, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Jaroslav Spacek, P.K. Subban

Players to avoid: Glen Metropolit, Benoit Pouliot, Dominic Moore, Maxim Lapierre, Travis Moen, Sergei Kostitsyn (no points in Round 1), Roman Hamrlik, Hal Gill, Carey Price

Storyline: Jaroslav Halak hasn’t walked on water or cured a man of leprosy yet, but Montreal faithful have already anointed him as the second coming of Christ. (I thought the Jesus nickname had been saved for Carey Price, but it might not be used in a complimentary manner by Habs fans anymore). Still, Halak performed a playoff miracle against Alex Ovechkin and the top-ranked Washington offense in perhaps the biggest playoff shocker in years. The Habs’ inprobable victory now means that all three Eastern Conference division winners have been eliminated from the playoffs in the first round, and the fourth-seeded Penguins are suddenly the highest-seeded team and the new favourite in the East. Can Halak solve Sidney Crosby and the Penguins, just like he did Ovechkin and the Capitals? Even though the Penguins were taken to six games by Ottawa, they looked very dominant at times.

Prediction: Penguins in 7. Based on my 1-for-4 prediction success rate in the first round, I’m about ready to let my dog or cat make my playoff picks (and why did TSN get rid of Maggie the Monkey?) I’m going to give Montreal the clear edge in goal, based on what Halak was able to do in the first round. However, based on the number of scorers who are pool-worthy, the Penguins clearly have a high-powered offense. Unlike the Capitals, the Penguins have been able to get to the big game and to win it, which is an intangible that will go a long way in this series. What might work against the Penguins in this series is that they take fewer shots than Washington, which will mean that Halak will for sure steal at least two games that the Habs have no business winning. The Habs’ power play success rate (21.8% in the regular season, second in NHL) will also score timely goals, making this another series that will not be for the faint of heart. I’m going to go the limit on this series and still pick Pittsburgh, but I would be less shocked than many others if Halak and the Habs pull it out again.

BOSTON BRUINS (6) vs. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (7)

Boston

Players to add/start: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Tuukka Rask

Possible sleepers: Marc Savard (returning from concussion, but expect limited icetime at first), Mark Recchi, Miroslav Satan (five points each in six games), Milan Lucic, Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler, Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman, Matt Hunwick

Players to avoid/drop: Dennis Seidenberg (injury), Marco Sturm (no points in Round 1), Daniel Paille, Vladimir Sobotka, Steve Begin, Johnny Boychuk, Tim Thomas

Philadelphia

Players to add: Mike Richards, Daniel Briere, Chris Pronger

Possible sleepers: Claude Giroux (six points in Round 1), Simon Gagne (foot injury, but could return during the series), Kimmo Timonen, Brian Boucher (the jury’s still out, but the Flyers really have no one else)

Players to avoid: Jeff Carter (foot injury), Scott Hartnell (no goals in 17 consecutive games and counting), James van Riemsdyk, Daniel Carcillo (two goals in Round 1, but who are we kidding – he’s not a scorer), Ville Leino, Ian Laperriere (eye injury), Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn (one point each in Round 1)

Storyline: As I said in the Montreal/Pittsburgh section, I sure know how to pick ‘em in the Eastern Conference. This is a matchup of two teams that underachieved during the regular season and were perhaps left for dead in the first round of the playoffs. The Bruins will no doubt feed off the return of last year’s team-leading scorer Marc Savard, who did not play during their six-game victory over Buffalo. However, the key to the Bruins’ success has been rookie goalie Tuukka Rask, who impressed with a 2.18 GAA and a .930 SV% in the first-round series. Meanwhile, the Flyers will look to Brian Boucher to hold the fort while they recover from key injuries on the forward lines. Boucher was the consensus lowest-ranked goalie at the start of the playoffs, but his numbers in Round 1 (1.59 GAA, .940 SV%) were even better than Rask’s. On a side note, did you notice that this is a reunion of the teams that played in this year’s Winter Classic?

Prediction: Bruins in 6. Neither team offers poolies a lot in terms of scoring, but the Flyers would hold the clear edge if not for the injuries to Carter and Gagne. Assuming that Gagne returns sometime during the series, consider the scoring even, since the Bruins also have Savard returning for Game 1. Based on regular-season stats, Philly has a slightly better power play, which could hold true in this series. However, the absence of Laperriere will be a costly one for the Flyers and will no doubt help the Bruins’ power play. With things even on forward and perhaps defense, the series will come down to goaltending. Who would you rather go into a playoff series with: Boucher or Rask? Boucher may not necessarily cost the Flyers this series, but don’t expect him to win the series for them either. Rask’s 1.97 GAA and .931 SV% led the NHL this season, and remember that the playoffs are all about goaltending. I might like the Flyers a little more if top goal-scorer Carter were available, but Rask will dominate and the B’s will come out on top.

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