Mock Draft Analysis – Part 4

09/03/2010 12:58 AM -  Steven Ives

Jeff Carter

This article will be divided into six parts. In each part, I will provide my analysis of two teams that participated in the 12-team fantasyhockey.com Mock Draft that was completed recently. For full mock draft rankings, be sure to purchase a copy of the 2010-11 fantasyhockey.com Draft Guide.

For Part 4, I will critique teams picked by fantasyhockey.com writer Evan Reynar and The Goods himself, fantasyhockey.com content editor Ian Gooding. (round selected in parentheses)

EVAN’S TEAM

C: Jeff Carter (3)
C: Mike Richards (7)
LW: Henrik Zetterberg (2)
LW: Kyle Beach (10)
RW: Johan Franzen (5)
RW: Mikael Samuelsson (8)
D: Zdeno Chara (4)
D: Sheldon Souray (9)
D: Mark Giordano (14)
D: Dennis Seidenberg (16)
G: Martin Brodeur (1)
G: Semyon Varlamov (6)
BN: Travis Zajac (11)
BN: Jordan Eberle (12)
BN: Mike Smith (13)
BN: Chris Kunitz (15)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Some great value picks in the middle rounds. Franzen (5) is a potential 40-goal scorer at the thinnest position, LW, in fantasy hockey. Varlamov (6) should win the starting job outright in Washington, and if he does, 35+ wins is a lock. Mike Richards in the 7th was a steal, I see him scoring 75-80 this year and he helps out with PiM and +/-. If Varlamov wins the goalie job outright, the combo of him and Brodeur could be tops in the league, much like the situation Chris has with Roberto Luongo and Antero Niittymaki.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Carter in the 3rd was too high. At a position as stocked as center, can you really justify taking Carter eight rounds ahead of Kesler, who will likely match him on the scoresheet and add 100+ PiM? Is Carter better than Pavel Datsyuk in the 4th? Ryan Getzlaf in the 5th? Jonathan Toews in the 6th? I doubt it. Taking Souray as your second D-man in the 9th round is also a reach. This guy averages 40 games per year. After Chara, Evan’s blueline has many question marks. And Kyle Beach could be an impact rookie putting up numbers similar to Sean Avery and Steve Ott. Of course, he could also wind up in the AHL. Taking him in the 15th or 16th round may have been safer, though Evan made up for it in the 15th round with a sharp selection of Chris Kunitz, who will be on Sidney Crosby’s wing in Pittsburgh.

IAN’S TEAM

C: Evgeni Malkin (1)
C: Jason Spezza (6)
LW: Mike Cammalleri (4)
LW: Scott Hartnell (10)
RW: Martin St. Louis (2)
RW: Phil Kessel (7)
D: Sergei Gonchar (5)
D: Brian Campbell (9)
D: Marek Zidlicky (12)
D: Pavel Kubina (13)
G: Jimmy Howard (3)
G: Kari Lehtonen (8)
BN: Ryan Kesler (11)
BN: Chris Mason (14)
BN: Teemu Selanne (15)
BN: David Perron (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Another team I really like. If Spezza (6) returns to even 80-90 point form, and if Malkin (1) is a strong candidate to bounce back and get near 100 points, Ian should have one of the top center tandems in the league. Even if Spezza does not bounce back, Ian made one of the top steal-picks in the draft, getting Ryan Kesler in the 11th round. Kesler’s 70-80 points and 100+ PiM makes him a valuable and rare commodity at center (not “centre”, as Ian would mistakenly and Canadianly spell it), and it’s baffling that he will start the season on the bench when he is superior to several centers which will be starting on other squads. I fail to understand, even with the depth at the center position, how several owners seemed to punt the position. Ian made another of the best picks in the draft grabbing Jimmy Howard in the 3rd — on a very strong Detroit team, Howard should be among the league leaders in GAA, wins and shutouts.I personally had him ranked fourth overall among goalies, after only Brodeur, Luongo and Ryan Miller. Hartnell in the 10th was also shrewd. In a league where many owners punted PiM, Hartnell is a lock for 40+ points and 150 PiM, and 60 points is not out of the question.

WHAT WENT WRONG:
Lehtonen in the eighth round is a nice boom/bust pick, but as much as he’s been injured in the past, it’s tough to expect a big year from him and Chris Mason doesn’t look to start more than 30 games this year, making him a dubious back-up. Ian will need to rely on Howard to carry him in goal unless Lehtonen somehow manages to stay healthy enough to start 55 games. Also, the bottom half of Ian’s defense (Zidlicky, 12 & Kubina 13) both look to be extreme minus players, and the chances of Kubina scoring 40+ points seem slim. At forward Ian’s team is clearly one of the tops in the league, but he will need lots of what-ifs to fall in his favor on the blueline and especially with Lehtonen. If Lehtonen has a big year, Ian will have one of the top teams in the league.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.


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