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FH203-Is the Enforcer Dead?
Contributed By: Evan Reynar
Contributed By: Evan Reynar
While the role of the "tough guy" may not be completely dead in the new NHL, there is no doubt that the role has diminished. Fighting will, and should, always be a part of hockey, but there just aren’t that many of the big guys with the big wheels these days. The league is much quicker now, and coaches are no longer afforded the option of giving a roster spot to a guy who can’t keep up with the play.
So what does less fighting mean for fantasy hockey if your league counts penalty minutes (PIMs)? Well, nothing. Or at least nothing has changed. If it is your goal to not only win, but dominate the rest of your league, you can’t ignore a stat category. At the same time, with the increased roll of offence in the NHL, you also cannot afford to waste a roster spot on a guy who plays 7 minutes a night, if he’s lucky. So what do you do?
There are in fact, a small group of players who gain extra value to you in your draft because they are just that…a small group of players. Last year I found it absolutely essential to draft the Los Angeles Kings’ Sean Avery in every one of my leagues. In my mind, he was the one player in the draft that pretty much guaranteed me a win in a stat category. Yet owning him wouldn’t be like a black hole at the bottom of my draft sheet sucking the life out of my other stat categories. In fact, I was rewarded. Avery put up a league high in PIMs (257) for the second straight year, while increasing his point totals (15g-24a-39pts) from the previous season (9g-19a-28pts). He also took 189 shots, compared to 125 the previous season. A sign that he was improving offensively, and indeed, Avery proved to be among the most essential players last year to having a winning fantasy team.
So run out and find a way to get Avery right away…right? Well, maybe not. You want your PIM guy to fit a certain profile, and it changes from year to year. It’s really the same profile you want to use for all the players you draft. You want the guys who contribute the most across the board in all categories. Conversely, you often want to avoid guys who don’t contribute at all in more than one or two categories. More importantly, you want to avoid guys that can actually hurt you in a category. For fantasy hockey this pertains to save percentage, goals against average, and plus/minus. There is no point in picking up a guy who is going to win you 1st in PIMs, but knock you down to 6th in plus/minus.
Sean Avery might not be the right option for you this year. While Avery does seem to be improving as an offensive threat and he has been rewarded with a larger role in the Kings offence, he could hurt your plus/minus. The Kings look to be one of the weaker teams in the Western Conference this year, as they begin their rebuilding process. True, there’s a lot of young talent, but young talent means low plus/minus in the world of fantasy.
Don’t be fooled by the acquisitions of Rob Blake (only a +2 in Colorado last year), and Dan Cloutier (career save% .902). LA should struggle to keep the puck out of the net this year. As a result, look for Avery’s plus/minus to go down even further than last year’s (-5). You may still come in second or third in PIMs to the guy who picks Avery, but a 2nd place finish in PIMs and a 1st place in plus/minus is better than 1st and 5th respectively. Here are some of your better options this year:
SHALLOW LEAGUES
Brendan Morrow, DAL
The new captain in Dallas, has to be the consensus pick for a top PIM guy.Morrow finally made the step last year to elite power forward status. His career-high in points (65), was matched by a career-high in PIMs (183), and an outstanding +30 rating. Back this year with a strong Dallas team, Morrow should continue to put points on the board, while contributing around 150 PIMs to your fantasy cause.
MIXED LEAGUES
Chris Neil, OTT
This is the guy I really like this year. Neil came into camp with the Senators 20 pounds leaner and ready to roll with the arrangement. His foot speed has improved dramatically, as indicated by the beautiful goal he scored against Toronto in the first game of the season. Look for Neil to put up the PIMs, he has averaged 199 last two years, while increasing on lasts years career-highs in goals (16), assists (17), and shots (126). Neil will also see some time on the power play (13 PP points last year), and playing with the Sens, you know he won’t bring you a minus too often (career +35).
DEEP LEAGUES
Todd Fedoruk, ANA
In your really deep leagues you may want to take a flyer on a guy like Fedoruk. Todd has earned himself an important role with the Ducks, protecting all their young stars. Surrounded by all that talent in Anaheim, Fedoruk is bound to improve on last years point production (4g-19a-23pts), while keeping up his penalty time (174 minutes last year).