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FH201: Which Positions should you target and why?
Contributed By: Tom Luongo
Contributed By: Tom Luongo
There is nothing more enjoyable about a Fantasy Hockey league (FHL) than the myriad of decisions to be made leading up to and during a live draft. There are so many things to consider beforehand, so many variables to assess during, and inevitably, so many mistakes to ponder afterwards. To minimize that feeling afterwards of, “Man, I should’ve picked …” it’s imperative to have a strategy going in. We would also like to preface our remarks by noting that these are intended for use in a draft where the tendencies of the players is not well known to you. Obviously, if you know how your friends are likely to draft alter your strategy accordingly. We will discuss the roster by position in order of importance and/or complexity of considerations.
GOALIES
In a common Fantasy Hockey league structure you will have 2 slots for each of the forward positions, 4 for the defense and 2 for the goalies. Goalies will generally count for between 25 and 33% of your score (3 or 4 categories out of 10-12 overall). So scoring is heavily weighted to them on a per player basis, and because no other category of player can score in their category, they are extremely important, more so than any of the ‘skaters.’ So, the $100 question is, “How early should you pick a goalie?”
Our answer is, “Almost always in the First Round of the Draft.” You’ll notice we said ‘almost.’ In any given year there are no more than 6 Top Tier Goalies. A Top Tier Goalie has 2 defining traits; he must be a great statistical goalie and on a great team. In years past Martin Brodeur would have been considered the quintessential Top Tier Goalie. This year it’s a lot harder to quantify which of the teams are going to be great and how much scoring will be affected by the new rule set, so this makes drafting goalies even more risky. But, this year is an anomaly. If you are drafting in the first round, there is absolutely no reason not to pick one of the Top Tier Goalies. If you’re drafting in one of the last two positions in a ‘snake’ draft (one that reverses order round to round), then maybe hold off until the 2nd round and pick up a forward.
What’s implicit in the above paragraph is that the other 24 starting goalies are not worth taking in the first round. Target another position, especially if you are drafting late. Use that opportunity to get “deep” at the forward position to have healthy trade bait later on. If there is a rush on goalies early on, you might just want to hold out until the 3rd or 4th round to make your first keeper selection. Of course, if the rush becomes a stampede, you may have to run with the herd or be completely shut out. Only goalies demand this kind of detailed consideration. No other single position has as much riding on them. Also, you should always look for a third goalie late in the draft so that you have a full compliment of three on your team since no goalie starts 82 games so it just makes sense to try and fill up the allowable games played if it’s a rotisserie league format.
DEFENSEMEN
If your solid if unspectacular in goal, and have a deep defense, you can consistently challenge for the league title without having to make a bunch of trades or micromanage your team. With the common FHL having 4 slots for defensemen it seems obvious that getting two of the top 15 D-men becomes a priority if you want to help cover up any other deficiencies that your team might have. Defense and Goaltending win the Stanley Cup, so too, Fantasy Hockey.
If your solid if unspectacular in goal, and have a deep defense, you can consistently challenge for the league title without having to make a bunch of trades or micromanage your team. With the common FHL having 4 slots for defensemen it seems obvious that getting two of the top 15 D-men becomes a priority if you want to help cover up any other deficiencies that your team might have. Defense and Goaltending win the Stanley Cup, so too, Fantasy Hockey.
That being said, what you want to be is the first guy to pick a defenseman, not the last. Timing on that first pick is important, and its never a good sign if that first D goes in the first round. If you don’t see that, then you should feel comfortable in grabbing an extra forward (preferably a LW, as a good one is almost as hard to find as a solid D-man). You don’t want to be left out in the cold on this one, so don’t worry if you feel you have to grab a defensemen in the second or third rounds.
There are 30 first liners at each position, and there are at least 10 teams with a second line as good as some teams’ first lines.
Therefore, just by the law of averages, the forwards across the teams in your fantasy leagues (assuming, of course, competent and engaged players) should be fairly evenly distributed. Some teams may wind up with more power at center, but then they’ll be hurting at LW or RW. With defensemen, much like goalies, demand far outstrips supply. There are maybe 30 defensemen worth starting who are strong across most categories. In a 12-team league there’s a basic need for 48. Your defensemen can give you the edge over your competitors by making those 3rd and 4th slots produce at much higher rates than everyone else’s.
In essence, defensemen provide you the ability to score with every starting roster spot. Moreover, being short at center or Right Wing to start the season is not nearly as crippling as it is at the other positions, as there are always more upside surprises at those positions than at the others. Careful combing of the Free Agent and Waiver Pool will help you fill those holes in your lineup if you sacrificed some scoring potential at Right Wing at the draft table.
LEFT WING
There is a structural dearth of statistically powerful Left Wings in the NHL. Much like defensemen there just are not enough to go around. In most FHL’s there’s only 2 slots to fill, but that still means you have to scrape the bottom of he barrel a bit. Its not a bad strategy to choose one player per position the first few rounds of your draft (goalie, a defenseman, and a left wing). So, if I’m drafting 10th in a 12-person league and the top 6 goalies are gone, I will target the best LW still available, unless the other three guys taken to this point were LW’s.
There is a structural dearth of statistically powerful Left Wings in the NHL. Much like defensemen there just are not enough to go around. In most FHL’s there’s only 2 slots to fill, but that still means you have to scrape the bottom of he barrel a bit. Its not a bad strategy to choose one player per position the first few rounds of your draft (goalie, a defenseman, and a left wing). So, if I’m drafting 10th in a 12-person league and the top 6 goalies are gone, I will target the best LW still available, unless the other three guys taken to this point were LW’s.
Because there is such a lack of fantasy-quality players at LW, it may be necessary to sacrifice this position for guys that are One-Stat-Wonders, PIMs, SHP or +/-. If the quality guys go early, try and get one who is a good value pick and then gamble on a prospect in one of the later rounds. Conversely, this is also the position you want to have a surplus of, having difficult decisions as to which left wing plays means you’ve got trading partners out there.
CENTER, RIGHT WING
We don’t really have a lot to say about these positions because they form the scoring backbone of most teams, making the strategy involved for drafting them pretty straightforward. Grab the “Best Player Available” keeping your options open to steal a guy. Someone from one of these two positions will fall to you like a gift from heaven in the 6th or 7th round simply as a matter of mathematics. If you’ve gotten yourself some depth at the hard-to-fill positions like defense and LW, then you will be in a position to take advantage of this situation. The difference between the top 5 centermen and the next ten is not as great as that of either LW or Defense. It’s those edges you are trying to play in the draft to give you a chance of winning.
We don’t really have a lot to say about these positions because they form the scoring backbone of most teams, making the strategy involved for drafting them pretty straightforward. Grab the “Best Player Available” keeping your options open to steal a guy. Someone from one of these two positions will fall to you like a gift from heaven in the 6th or 7th round simply as a matter of mathematics. If you’ve gotten yourself some depth at the hard-to-fill positions like defense and LW, then you will be in a position to take advantage of this situation. The difference between the top 5 centermen and the next ten is not as great as that of either LW or Defense. It’s those edges you are trying to play in the draft to give you a chance of winning.
One final thought in all of this. Be a bit of a contrarian or trendsetter during the draft. Be the first guy to pick a defensemen. If everyone is drafting skaters, get two goalies and two left wings. It’s guaranteed that you will be inundated with trade requests if your foresight during the draft paid off.