Fantasy Hockey Roundtable

One player whose production has blown me away this season is Phoenix goalie Ilya Bryzgalov. After a mediocre 2008-09 (26-31-6, 2.98 GAA), not to mention the unsettled and rebuilding state of the franchise, I had projected Bryzgalov to have a poor year. Illy has proven me wrong with impressive numbers across the board this season, including a league-leading five shutouts. As well, he has been named one of the NHL’s Three Stars for both October and December. The Coyotes’ success as a team parallels their goalie’s success, so you’d have to think that team and goalie will be positively correlated in the second half. In other words, if the Coyotes start to play like the cellar dwellers that they were projected to be, Bryzgalov’s numbers will take a turn for the worse.

As much as the Coyotes have been a first-half surprise, the Red Wings have been a first-half disappointment. Two Wings whose fantasy value has taken a resulting hit are Nicklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski. The Red Wings’ power play has been ordinary this season after posting a league-leading 25.5% conversion rate last season. But there are signs that the power play isn’t dormant yet. Much of the Wings’ lack of success this season has been due to the loss of scorers Marian Hossa, Jiri Hudler, and Mikael Samuelsson. However, the Wings have also been snakebitten by injury. The projected returns of Henrik Zetterberg, Danny Cleary, and Jason Williams should provide the Wings with more power-play depth, while the return of Niklas Kronwall should ease the burden on Lidstrom and Rafalski. Lidstrom has picked up his play recently with three multipoint games since Christmas, and Rafalski’s game should follow the same pattern.

How about Alex Kovalev for second-half surprise? Many fantasy owners are completely down on the enigmatic Russian after a dismal start to his career as a Senator. However, two trends are worth mentioning: (1) Kovalev’s four-goal, one-assist game on Sunday against Philadelphia could provide a jolt, and after all, we know him as a streaky player, and (2) Kovalev’s splits over the last two seasons prove that he is more of a second-half player (less than point-per-game numbers before the All-Star break, point-per-game numbers after the All-Star break). I’ve been thinking about dropping Kovalev for much of the season from my team in the Yahoo Friends and Family league, but I think I’ll hang onto him for a little bit longer.

Ian Gooding, fantasyhockey.com

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