Jonathan Quick (Source: Creative Commons member Resolute)

It’s the most… wonderful… time… of the year…

With apologies to Andy Williams, fantasy hockey drafts are in full force and will be for another month. That means that my inbox is filling up fast with your questions about your fantasy teams. If you’d like to pick my brain about your team, you can shoot me an email at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or, you can hit me up at the podcast on Saturday. If you’re looking for a second opinion (or third, or fourth, or maybe even fifth), you can post a question to our Forums. In fact, I recently answered a series of questions from a member recently, although the thread is too lengthy to go into the article. It’s an interesting set of questions about comparing Mikko Koivu to Patrick Sharp, and the fantasy values of Sergei Gonchar and Mike Cammalleri. You can click here to read.

Ian,

Please take a look at my team and give me your feedback.  I know I could be light in goal especially if Niemi doesn’t start. I also have some concerns on the blueline. Do you see anyone I should look at trading? The stats that will count are:

1. (7) Steven Stamkos C
2. (18) Ilya Kovalchuk LW
3. (31) Alexander Semin RW
4. (42) Marian Hossa RW
5. (55) Antti Niemi G
6. (66) Christian Ehrhoff D
7. (79) Zach Bogosian D
8. (90) John Tavares C
9. (103) Brooks Laich LW
10. (114) Jiri Hudler RW
11. (127) Ian White D
12. (138) Stephane Robidas D
13. (151) Tim Thomas G
14. (162) Alexei Ponikarovsky LW
15. (175) Valtteri Filppula C
16. (186) Jamie Langenbrunner RW

Randy

Hi Randy,

I would address your goaltending situation before looking at improving your defense. Proven goalies are much harder to find off the waiver wire during the season than d-men.

Niemi won’t necessarily be the starter in SJ, but at worst he’s a timeshare goalie. I can’t be that confident about Tim Thomas, although the B’s will turn to him quickly should Tuukka Rask struggle. But I think your team needs at least one more goalie, preferably a starter.

What I would do is dangle one of your RW (Semin or Hossa) for a goalie, since you seem to be fairly deep at RW. Most teams will be reluctant to trade starting goalies, since they think the goalies they drafted will have a solid season. However, I’d look for a team that has three or even four goalies, or a team that sorely lacks at the RW position.

Semin is deserving of a high ranking, but staying healthy has been a nagging concern. Hossa, in my opinion, is a bit overrated, and you might command top-drawer price for a RW that has been second-tier for the last few seasons. If I had to pick one player that you should attempt to trade, it would definitely be Hossa.

Thanks for your question, Randy. Good luck with your team!

Hi Ian,

So I have Jonathan Quick ranked right up there… thinking about taking him in the 2nd half of the draft. This is mainly because LA is on the rise. They have solid defense and fantastic offense. However, I’m a little worried about Jonathan Bernier. He’s been through the seasoning in the AHL and looks primed to make his NHL debut. Last year Bernier won all three games he played with a GAA of 1.30 & a SV% of .957. What do you think. Take Quick or opt out and draft Bernier late late in the draft?

Wow… that’s a tough one. Is there any way that you can use a “handcuff” situation, like as in fantasy football for running backs?
 
I agree with you in that LA is a team on the rise, so whoever their starting goalie is is a goalie worth owning. The question is, who will that goalie be? I have a feeling that Quick will be the starter at the start of the season, and Bernier will be eased into the role. Think of maybe Antti Niemi in Chicago or Tuukka Rask in Boston last season. I think that Bernier, the AHL’s top goalie last season with a 2.03 GAA and .936 SV% in 58 games, will be the Kings’ starter by the end of the season. Quick didn’t look like a long-term starter during last year’s playoffs, so coach Terry Murray will eventually decide on Bernier to take them to the next level.
 
If you take Quick, don’t take him until the second half of the draft, and take Bernier a round or two later if possible.
 
Thanks for you question, Vino.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Antti Niemi

The San Jose Sharks recently signed Stanley Cup winning goaltender Antti Niemi to a one-year deal. We all know San Jose scores a lot of goals and wins a lot of games, but what does this mean for fantasy owners?

Despite having success in Chicago last year, there are a few concerns for Niemi’s owners. First of all, he only started 39 games during the NHL 2009-10 regular season. Similarly, he only started 38 games in 2008-09 in the AHL. His durability is a big concern; however, there is good news. Niemi probably won’t be called on to start more than 50 games this year, because the Sharks also signed Antero Niittymaki in the off-season and also have talented youngster Thomas Greiss waiting in the wings. Secondly, Niemi wasn’t the #1 starter going into last season, so he didn’t have high expectations (which won’t be the case this season). The Sharks are long overdue to at least make a Stanley Cup appearance, so all eyes will be on Niemi this season. How will he handle the pressure?

In order to fully understand the numbers Niemi will likely post, we first need to examine those of his predecessor, Evgeni Nabokov. Despite being 34 years of age last season, Nabokov posted fabulous numbers. He had a 2.43 GAA and a .922 SV%. San Jose certainly has a talented blueline with Dan Boyle, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Jason Demers. They also have a ton of superstar forwards, so Niemi will get plenty of goal support. The short term expectations for Niemi should be a about a 2.50 GAA and a .915 SV%. He should win between 28 to 32 games, depending on how many games he starts. His long-term value is quite high, but not completely known because he could be a free agent again after this season.

In other goalie news, Montreal recently resigned high profile goalie Carey Price. Price’s struggles the past few seasons have been well documented and he has been roundly criticized by many members of the media.

Despite losing the starting job last post-season to Jaroslav Halak, Price was immediately ordained the #1 goalie this season because Halak was surprisingly traded to the St. Louis Blues for prospects in the offseason. There’s no doubt that Price has the talent to steal games for his team in the NHL. He also has tremendous fantasy potential, as evidenced by his spectacular rookie season.  The players in front of Price only further enhance his fantasy value.

The Habs’ blueline includes Andrei Markov, Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill, Roman Hamrlik and super youngster PK Subban. Their defensemen are a nice mix of offensive and defensive talent. The forward corps is skilled too with budding superstars Mike Cammalleri and Tomas Plekanec up front. Cammy and Plekanec are supported by Andrei Kostitsyn, Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez. Price is certainly in a position to succeed, so his fantasy owners should be thrilled.

The only potential concern is that Price may not be mentally tough enough to succeed. Despite not being born in Quebec, Price is viewed as the potential savior of the franchise. The pressures of goaltending for hockey’s most storied franchise are high expectations for any 23 year old to endure. To make matters worse, Price has lost his cool several times in the past. While Price has all the tools to be a superstar, he simply may lack the capacity to put it all together over the long haul.

Got a question about the fantasy team you just drafted? Email content editor Ian Gooding at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Jeff Carter

This article will be divided into six parts. In each part, I will provide my analysis of two teams that participated in the 12-team fantasyhockey.com Mock Draft that was completed recently. For full mock draft rankings, be sure to purchase a copy of the 2010-11 fantasyhockey.com Draft Guide.

For Part 4, I will critique teams picked by fantasyhockey.com writer Evan Reynar and The Goods himself, fantasyhockey.com content editor Ian Gooding. (round selected in parentheses)

EVAN’S TEAM

C: Jeff Carter (3)
C: Mike Richards (7)
LW: Henrik Zetterberg (2)
LW: Kyle Beach (10)
RW: Johan Franzen (5)
RW: Mikael Samuelsson (8)
D: Zdeno Chara (4)
D: Sheldon Souray (9)
D: Mark Giordano (14)
D: Dennis Seidenberg (16)
G: Martin Brodeur (1)
G: Semyon Varlamov (6)
BN: Travis Zajac (11)
BN: Jordan Eberle (12)
BN: Mike Smith (13)
BN: Chris Kunitz (15)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Some great value picks in the middle rounds. Franzen (5) is a potential 40-goal scorer at the thinnest position, LW, in fantasy hockey. Varlamov (6) should win the starting job outright in Washington, and if he does, 35+ wins is a lock. Mike Richards in the 7th was a steal, I see him scoring 75-80 this year and he helps out with PiM and +/-. If Varlamov wins the goalie job outright, the combo of him and Brodeur could be tops in the league, much like the situation Chris has with Roberto Luongo and Antero Niittymaki.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Carter in the 3rd was too high. At a position as stocked as center, can you really justify taking Carter eight rounds ahead of Kesler, who will likely match him on the scoresheet and add 100+ PiM? Is Carter better than Pavel Datsyuk in the 4th? Ryan Getzlaf in the 5th? Jonathan Toews in the 6th? I doubt it. Taking Souray as your second D-man in the 9th round is also a reach. This guy averages 40 games per year. After Chara, Evan’s blueline has many question marks. And Kyle Beach could be an impact rookie putting up numbers similar to Sean Avery and Steve Ott. Of course, he could also wind up in the AHL. Taking him in the 15th or 16th round may have been safer, though Evan made up for it in the 15th round with a sharp selection of Chris Kunitz, who will be on Sidney Crosby’s wing in Pittsburgh.

IAN’S TEAM

C: Evgeni Malkin (1)
C: Jason Spezza (6)
LW: Mike Cammalleri (4)
LW: Scott Hartnell (10)
RW: Martin St. Louis (2)
RW: Phil Kessel (7)
D: Sergei Gonchar (5)
D: Brian Campbell (9)
D: Marek Zidlicky (12)
D: Pavel Kubina (13)
G: Jimmy Howard (3)
G: Kari Lehtonen (8)
BN: Ryan Kesler (11)
BN: Chris Mason (14)
BN: Teemu Selanne (15)
BN: David Perron (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Another team I really like. If Spezza (6) returns to even 80-90 point form, and if Malkin (1) is a strong candidate to bounce back and get near 100 points, Ian should have one of the top center tandems in the league. Even if Spezza does not bounce back, Ian made one of the top steal-picks in the draft, getting Ryan Kesler in the 11th round. Kesler’s 70-80 points and 100+ PiM makes him a valuable and rare commodity at center (not “centre”, as Ian would mistakenly and Canadianly spell it), and it’s baffling that he will start the season on the bench when he is superior to several centers which will be starting on other squads. I fail to understand, even with the depth at the center position, how several owners seemed to punt the position. Ian made another of the best picks in the draft grabbing Jimmy Howard in the 3rd — on a very strong Detroit team, Howard should be among the league leaders in GAA, wins and shutouts.I personally had him ranked fourth overall among goalies, after only Brodeur, Luongo and Ryan Miller. Hartnell in the 10th was also shrewd. In a league where many owners punted PiM, Hartnell is a lock for 40+ points and 150 PiM, and 60 points is not out of the question.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Lehtonen in the eighth round is a nice boom/bust pick, but as much as he’s been injured in the past, it’s tough to expect a big year from him and Chris Mason doesn’t look to start more than 30 games this year, making him a dubious back-up. Ian will need to rely on Howard to carry him in goal unless Lehtonen somehow manages to stay healthy enough to start 55 games. Also, the bottom half of Ian’s defense (Zidlicky, 12 & Kubina 13) both look to be extreme minus players, and the chances of Kubina scoring 40+ points seem slim. At forward Ian’s team is clearly one of the tops in the league, but he will need lots of what-ifs to fall in his favor on the blueline and especially with Lehtonen. If Lehtonen has a big year, Ian will have one of the top teams in the league.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Tuukka Rask

This article will be divided into six parts. In each part, I will provide my analysis of two teams that participated in the 12-team fantasyhockey.com Mock Draft that was completed recently. For full mock draft rankings, be sure to purchase a copy of the 2010-11 fantasyhockey.com Draft Guide.

For Part 3, I will critique teams picked by new fantasyhockey.com writer Garrett Rees and The Program director Chris Wassel. (round selected in parentheses)

GARRETT’S TEAM

C: Steven Stamkos (1)
C: John Tavares (8)
LW: Rick Nash (4)
LW: Wojtek Wolski (9)
RW: Ales Hemsky (5)
RW: Nathan Horton (7)
D: Mike Green (2)
D: Stephane Robidas (12)
D: Joni Pitkanen (13)
D: Andy Greene (15)
G: Tuukka Rask (3)
G: Marty Turco (6)
BN: Brian Elliott (10)
BN: Peter Mueller (11)
BN: Brenden Morrow (14)
BN: Patric Hornqvist (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: I think pretty much everything – I like this squad. Stamkos should go over 100+ points this year and Tavaras could be this year’s Stamkos. 80+ points for the young Islander phenom is not out of the question in my mind, making Garrett’s center tandem one of the tops in the league. I also love what Garrett did on the blueline. Green in the second round is a great pick — he could outscore the fourth best D-man in the league by an incredible 30 points, making him even worthy to take in the late first round. Then I thought Garrett got three nice value picks to fill out his blueline very late in the draft — Robidas (12), Pitkanen (13) and Greene (15).

WHAT WENT WRONG: I thought Rask in the third round was a huge reach. Boston is a mediocre team at best this year, especially if they trade Marc Savard, a likely scenario. Their blueline is quite thin behind Zdeno Chara and they won’t score a lot, making it very hard for a goalie without a full season under his belt. I’m not saying Rask is a BAD pick, just that comparable goaltenders were tabbed three and four rounds later. Also, like many owners in the league, Garrett seemed to complete eschew the PiM category. Overall, however, Garrett’s team should seriously compete, in my mind.

CHRIS’ TEAM

C: Henrik Sedin (2)
C: Derek Roy (9)
LW: Thomas Vanek (6)
LW: Sean Avery (12)
RW: Bobby Ryan (3)
RW: Jamie Langenbrunner (11)
D: Tobias Enstrom (4)
D: Tomas Kaberle (7)
D: Lubomir Visnovsky (8)
D: Johnny Boychuk (13)
G: Roberto Luongo (1)
G: Antero Niittymaki (5)
BN: Dan Ellis (10)
BN: Brooks Laich (14)
BN: Wade Redden (15)
BN: Vinny Prospal (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: If the Sharks DO NOT sign Antti Niemi and Nittymaki starts for them, Chris will dominate in goal with Luongo and Niittymaki (read: whoever starts 60 for San Jose). If Niittymaki loses his job, though, it might be a long year. I also think Chris made some nice value picks: Henrik Sedin in the second is a steal, while Ryan (3) Vanek (6) and Kaberle (7) were all great picks.

WHAT WENT WRONG: As I’ve said in the chatroom, Enstrom is the 4th round was one of the biggest reaches in the draft. Robert waited until the 7th to get Streit, a better version of Enstrom, in essence. Chris lost his head a bit with two more blueline selections Boychuk in the 13th (20 points would be a stretch) and the soon-to-be-legendary selection of Wade Redden, which could single-handedly threaten our collective status as “experts”. Editor’s note: Chris expanded on his Redden selection by saying, “Tradition dictates I do one of those throwaway picks. I want to see if something really wakes him up.” Hmmm.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

For Part 2, I will critique teams picked by SB Nation blogger Jack Weiland and Weekly Slapshot Podcast contributor Matt Juba.(round selected in parentheses)

Jack’s team

C: Marc Savard (7)
C: Mikko Koivu (8)
LW: Ilya Kovalchuk (2)
LW: Simon Gagne (10)
RW: Patrick Kane (1)
RW: Marian Hossa (4)
D: Shea Weber (5)
D: Erik Johnson (9)
D: Jay Bouwmeester (11)
D: Alex Goligoski (13)
G: Ilya Bryzgalov (3)
G: Tomas Vokoun (6)
BN: Olli Jokinen (12)
BN: Martin Havlat (14)
BN: Kurtis Foster (15)
BN: J.S. Giguere (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: With Kane and Hossa, no team in the league can match Jack’s scoring at RW. He also did a phenomenal job at LW when Kovy’s 45 goals at a thin position fell to him in the 2nd round, and then he made one of the best sleeper grabs in the draft with Gagne in the 10th. If Gagne is healthy, Jack might have the top quartet of wingers in the league. Jack also made, in my estimation, four excellent value picks for his bluline with Weber (5th), Johnson (9th and it broke my heart to not get him myself), Jay-Bo (11th) and Goligoski (13th). I think Jack’s team will, without a doubt, contend in this league.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Not much — Savard is his top center and has concussion problems which are scary, and Jack neglected to draft anyone capable of helping him in the category of PiM. (Editor’s note: Kovalchuk is still unsigned at this point, and his fantasy stock will be worthless if he signs in the KHL this season.)

Matt’s team

C: Brad Richards (3)
C: Paul Stastny (4)
LW: Alexander Semin (1)
LW: Kris Versteeg (11)
RW: Marian Gaborik (2)
RW: Jason Pominville (8)
D: Kevin Bieksa (9)
D: Dion Phaneuf (7)
D: Zach Bogosian (12)
D: Victor Hedman (14)
D: Craig Anderson (5)
D: Jonas Hiller (6)
BN: Kyle Okposo (10)
BN: Dustin Byfuglien (13)
BN: Pascal Leclaire (15)
BN: Bryan Little (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Craig Anderson is one of the most undervalued goalies in fantasy hockey. A 70+ game guy with a young, emerging team in front of him, Matt stole him in the 5th round, well after goaltenders who are on or at his level (Henrik Lundqvist -2, Tuukka Rask and Ilya Bryzgalov -3, Marc-Andre Fleury, Miikka Kiprusoff and Niklas Backstrom – 4, Pekka Rinne – 5). Hedman in the 14th was a nice sleeper pick — a kid with that much talent on a team with that kind of skill up front could really explode, especially in the softest defensive division in the NHL. 45 to 50 points from Hedman would not amaze me, and I expect him to be a + guy this season.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Matt went with two huge injury risks with his top two picks: Semin in the first and Gaborik in the second. In the same position, I would have went with Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk or Martin St. Louis and slept much better that night. Stastny is another injury risk, and I expect him to be outscored by emerging star Matt Duchene (one of the steals of this draft) this year. Like a few other owners, Matt punted the penalty minute category entirely. Also, Matt — you’re our one Buffalo fan. How’d you end up with just Pominville on your squad? One can only hope you trade for Tyler Myers.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

For Part 1, I will start with teams picked by fantasyhockey.com reader Robert Finkelstein and fantasypros911.com writer Ray Calder.

Robert’s team (round selected in parentheses):

C: Eric Staal (4)
C: David Krejci (11)
LW: Zach Parise (1)
LW: Andy McDonald (9)
RW: Loui Eriksson (5)
RW: Steve Downie (8)
D: Andrei Markov (3)
D: Mark Streit (7)
D: Paul Martin (10)
D: Jamie McBain (12)
G: Ryan Miller (2)
G: Cam Ward (6)
BN: Ian White (13)
BN: Jonas Gustavsson (14)
BN: Mike Ribeiro (15)
BN: David Clarkson (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Picking 12th and 13th, Robert got Parise and Miller — fantastic picks that I personally had both ranked in my Top 8. Picking last, that was an absolute coup. Staal in the 4th was a great grab, as I like him getting around 90+ points this year. Last year he really turned it around after a slow start. I loved the pick of Downie in the 8th round — he’s a unique player in any league which counts PIM. He’s the only player in the NHL capable of 50+ pts and 200+ PiM, especially since wunderkind Steven Stamkos loves playing on a line with him.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Jamie McBain in the 12th was a reach, especially when you consider that two defensemen on his own team which are a lock to outscore him were not yet off the board (Joni Pitkanen -13, Joe Corvo – still on the board). McBain’s +/- is also a dubious proposition. Robert had the same dilemma picking Gustavsson in the 14th round — J.S. Giguere is still on the board and will get the lion’s share of the goaltending load for a pitiful team in Toronto. I also think Robert waited one round too many for his second center — taking Krejci in the 11th when a trio of superior options went earlier in the same round: Matt Duchene, Ryan Kesler and then Travis Zajac.

Ray’s team

C: Pavel Datsyuk (4)
C: Vincent Lecavalier (5)
LW: Taylor Hall (6)
LW: Tyler Ennis (12)
RW: Dany Heatley (1)
RW: Claude Giroux (11)
D: Dan Boyle (3)
D: P.K. Subban (7)
D: Brian Rafalski (8)
D: Erik Karlsson (9)
G: Henrik Lundqvist (2)
G: Michael Leighton (10)
BN: Jakub Voracek (13)
BN: Michael Del Zotto (14)
BN: Alexander Frolov (15)
BN: Tim Thomas (16)

WHAT WENT RIGHT: Datsyuk and Lecavalier at center in the 4th + 5th rounds was remarkable. Ray’s center pairing is as good as anyone’s and he didn’t touch the position for three rounds. Rafalski falling to the 9th round was fortuitous — 45 points and +20 are almost a lock with that underrated stud on the blueline. I loved the pick of Giroux in the 11th — this kid’s got superstar potential and will have a lot more ice time and power-play time this year; we saw what Giroux was capable of in his terrific playoff run last year.

WHAT WENT WRONG: Hall in the 6th round and Subban in the 7th would have been good picks — had Ray waited until the 13th and 14th rounds. This isn’t a keeper league, and I would be shocked if those two players COMBINED for as many points as, say, Ryan Kesler who wasn’t taken until the 11th round. Leighton in the 10th was a reach — Brian Boucher will play at least 40 games in Philly — that is UNLESS they get either of two goalies they covet (Jonathan Bernier and Antti Niemi), in which case Leighton will be a throwaway pick along with Hall and Subban. Also, who’s getting any penalty minutes on this team? In head-to-head, it’s tough to punt an entire category like that.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Henrik Lundqvist (Source: Creative Commons user duluoz cats)

Anyone in a dynasty league knows the value of goaltenders. They’re so important that they can often single-handedly make or break your franchise. And since they’re so important, they certainly deserve their own article prior to the start of the season.

1) Henrik Lundqvist: Age 28/Cap hit $6.875M. Despite seeing a slight rise to his GAA the past two seasons, Lundqvist’s other numbers have still been fantastic. He’s averaging 36 wins, a .918 SV% and a GAA of about 2.40 since 2007-2008. He also plays in an astounding amount of games; 72, 70 and 73 in 07/08, 08/09 and 09/10, respectively. Another important consideration is that the Rangers generally play solid team defense and despite having the occasional bad game, King Henrik reigns supreme in long-term leagues.

Even though Lundqvist’s superb numbers are said to give him most of his value, his out of this world worth is partially explained through more practical factors. Lundqvist is only 28, so he has plenty more hockey left to play. Moreover, he also has vast name value. So if you’re ever put in a difficult position and have to trade him, you’ll truly get a king’s ransom in return.

2) Ryan Miller: 30/$6.25m. Even though Miller dominated the NHL and the world last year, he only deserves the #2 spot for the long haul. Yes, Miller posted remarkable numbers last year, impressing us all with a 2.22 GAA, .929 SV% and 41 W. Those were all career best, by far. More troubling is the fact that Buffalo will be without Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder, who were lost to free agency. Defensive chemistry is extremely important to the Sabres’ system and it might take a while for the club to find it this year. To make matters worse, Buffalo doesn’t have the offensive firepower to consistently get Ryan 41 wins. While it is an excellent defensive system most years, Buffalo isn’t willing to spend the big bucks required to keep star players playing in front of Miller.

3) Tuukka Rask: 23/$1.25m. Despite having less than a full season of NHL action under his belt, Rask deserves to be ranked third. If you can somehow ignore his youth, small cap hit and insane numbers last season (1.97 GAA, .931 SV%), remember that he has proven himself at every level of hockey he’s played in. He put up superb numbers as an 18 year old in the FNL and a 21 year old in the AHL. He’s extremely competitive and wants to win more than anything else.

Furthermore, he plays in a very solid defensive system and will for the foreseeable future. Even if he gets a bit off track this season, (sophomore slump anyone?) the Bruins won’t hang him out to dry. They’ll allow Tim Thomas to step in for a few games while Rask regains his form. Despite lacking experience, Rask is clearly the #3 fantasy goaltender going forward and could be #1 within a season or two.

4) Roberto Luongo: 31/$5.33m. Luongo consistently wins lots of games and posts stellar numbers, so why is he only #4? The answer is once again found in reality, not fantasy. There are big questions about Luongo in Vancouver and there’s no guarantee how long he’ll be there if the team doesn’t make the Stanley Cup Finals this year. His numbers last year were certainly a bit of a let-down. A 2.57 GAA and .913 SV% were the worst stats he posted in several years. There’s also lingering concern about his head. Some question whether he can win the big game and others wonder if the injuries he suffered in 2009 are still bothering him.

Luongo really disappointed Canuck fans down the stretch. Though much blame can be laid on the defense, Big Lu’s 3.22 GAA and .895 SV% in the playoffs are cause for concern. Then again, he still has big name value and will be a capable netminder on most nights. Be careful not to overrate him though.

5) Ilya Bryzgalov: 30/$4.25m. There are several reasons to like Ilya Bryzgalov, and almost no reasons not to. After posting career numbers on a rejuvenated Phoenix team last season, Bryzgalov looks like a strong favorite to be one of the top five goalies in the league in 2010-11. Stocked with young talent like Viktor Tikhonov, Mikkel Boeddker, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Kyle Turris, Phoenix certainly looks like a franchise on the way up. The team also has veteran leadership with Shane Doan, Ray Whitney, Adrian Aucoin, and Ed Jovanovski. Adding to Ilya’s value is the fact that he only recently turned 30 and has no long-term health concerns or lingering injuries.

However, there are a few questions for the immediate future. Bryzgalov will be a free agent in 2011 and could potentially price himself out of the range of the Coyotes. The veteran blue-line around him is aging fast. Jovanovski, Aucoin, and Derek Morris aren’t exactly 25 anymore. Plus, many around the league still knock him for the occasional soft goal. But don’t be fooled by the naysayers, “The Bryz” is one of the top 5 on this list for a reason, so treat him as such.

6) Miikka Kiprusoff: 34/$5.8m. While I’m not personally a huge fan of the Kipper, he has exceptional high name value and posted career numbers in 2009/2010. After posting a 2.35 GAA and a .920 SV%, Kiprusoff’s value has gone sky high. The team in front of him is extremely solid, especially on the blue-line, so he will probably win a lot of games in 2010-11. But with that said, the time to sell him is now! In fact, I’m even willing to say it’s only reasonable to keep him if you intend to make a championship run this season or simply can’t find an attractive enough offer.

Admittedly, he had a great season in 09-10 but his numbers in the previous two seasons were definitely disappointing. Also important is the fact that Calgary management brought in Swedish super goalie Henrik Karlsson. Is Karlsson only there to play 15 games as a backup, or might he look to take over when Kipper falters? Another concern is Kipper’s number of starts. A large part of his value is derived from his insane number of games played, over 70 in each of the last three seasons. But can that continue as he continues to age? Considering the addition of a capable backup, I’m expecting Kipper to start fewer games each year from here on out.

7) Jaroslav Halak: 25/$3.75m. Don’t be fooled into thinking Halak’s success in the 2010 playoffs was a fluke, because it definitely wasn’t. Much like Rask, Halak has succeeded at every level he’s played in. Going back through the last seven years, Halak has conquered more leagues than Napoleon conquered nations. Halak left big marks on the Slovak league, QMJHL, ECHL, AHL and most recently, the NHL.

While Halak played sterling hockey last year, keep in mind that he posted a .915 SV% in 35 games during the 2008/09 season too. Halak also has name value that’s growing by leaps and bounds. Factor in where he plays, St. Louis, which is a franchise loaded with young, defensive talent and the situation looks great. However, there should be one concern. Halak hasn’t endured the workload of an NHL starter in the course of one season until last year, and he faded a bit in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Beyond perhaps lacking a little endurance, Halak has an extremely bright future and should be considered the seventh-best long-term goaltender in the NHL at this time.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Antti Niemi

Thanks to a number of high profile arbitration hearings, this off-season has been a particularly complicated time. In this article, we’ll break down some of the moves and examine their fantasy implications. Let’s begin by reviewing recent arbitration decisions and determining what they mean for fantasy owners.

Blake Wheeler, BOS: After an award of a $2.2 million, one-year contract to Wheeler, the Bruins, as expected, signed him to that term. But what does it all mean? Wheeler is coming off a down year. He disappointed virtually all owners by posting only 38 points in a full 82 games last season. The problem for the talented, young winger is that Boston has a log-jam of talent up-front. The good news is that they’ll almost certainly be shedding the salary of two of Michael Ryder, Marco Sturm and Marc Savard. Thanks to the long-term signing of Tim Thomas, the Bruins have a big salary cap problem they soon must solve. Wheeler has the tools to post 50+ points this season, but the determining factor will be icetime. If Sturm, Savard and Ryder are gone, Wheeler will have plenty of chances to score goals. However, if the log-jam of forwards continues, then Wheeler might be left out in the cold.

Jannik Hansen, VAN: The Canucks recently accepted an $825,000 arbitration award and signed Hansen to a one-year deal. Despite having little value in year-long leagues, Hansen is an intriguing keeper-league option. He’s shown flashes of superb speed and great hands but hasn’t been consistent. Despite being 5 inches shorter and 30 pounds lighter, Hansen is basically in the same boat as Blake Wheeler. He had a nice rookie campaign, with 21 points in 55 games, only to disappoint in his sophomore season (15 points in 47 games). Whether or not Hansen gets enough icetime will be the determining factor in the short-term.  He should be treated as a nice, cheap option in deep dynasty or keeper leagues and ignored otherwise.

Antti Niemi, CHI: To the surprise of almost everyone, the Blackhawks walked away from the $2.75 million arbitration award to Antti Niemi. While Chicago probably would’ve liked to keep Niemi, their salary cap situation simply made it too difficult. More than a half-dozen teams are rumored to be interested in the services of Niemi, and it’s extremely likely he will soon be signed. However, the greatest factor in his fantasy value is likely not where he signs, but in what type of a defensive system. Despite posting a 2.25 GAA and.910 SV% during the regular season, his numbers faded a bit in the playoffs. Though he was in net for the Cup-winning Hawks, he wasn’t the main reason they won. He’s a big goalie who takes up space effectively but still has problems with rebound control and endurance over the course of a whole season. If he’s signed by a team that allows a lot of shots and expects him to play 65 games, he’s going to have some problems. On the other hand, if he ends up with a team that plays some variation of the trap or keeps shots to the outside, he might be a solid #1 fantasy netminder in the upcoming season.

In this off-season, there have been more than just arbitration awards. There’ve been several big name signings and some interesting trades as well.

Marty Turco, CHI: Despite posting okay numbers in Dallas last season, it’s long been known that Turco’s best days are behind him. Even still, he has fantasy value as the starter in Chicago. While the Hawks have gotten rid of many top notch players because of cap troubles, they’ve managed to keep the core of their defense, including Duncan Keith, Niklas Hjalmarsson and company. The Blackhawks may bury Cristobal Huet in the majors and use Corey Crawford as their second goalie. Crawford could start 25  to 35 games if he is called up, and he could even end up being the #1 goalie in Chicago sooner than you think. Turco should be a reasonable option for the upcoming season, but has very little value in long-term leagues.

Todd White, NYR: Despite not being a household name, White has been a serviceable fantasy player for several years. His poor production last season (7g, 19a) should be taken with a grain of salt, as he was injured much of the time and on a rather poor team. The season prior, he posted a career high 73 points centering Ilya Kovalchuk. Recently acquired by the Rangers in a trade with Atlanta, White might end up on the Rangers’ second line or even serve as the defensive conscience of the first line.  Keep an eye on White because he could end up being a nice waiver-wire acquisition early on in the fantasy season.

Simon Gagne, TB:  Just weeks ago, the Bolts acquired Gagne from the Flyers for Matt Walker and a 2011 draft pick. While Gagne was injured much of last season, he had a huge impact in the postseason and that should carry over to this season. Gagne will be playing on one of the most talented offensive teams in the league. With Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Ryan Malone composing the core of the team’s offensive firepower, Gagne will have plenty of talent on whichever line he ends up on. The only concern for potential owners of Gagne is the injury bug. Simon played only 25 games in 2007-08 and only 40 last season. A good plan is to look for Gagne in the later rounds of your draft or potentially even as a free agent. Picking him inside the first 8 or 9 rounds is simply too risky.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Alexander Frolov (Source: Creative Commons user Ivanmakarov)

Two of the “remaining” free agents were finally able to find teams on Tuesday. Alexander Frolov switches from West Coast to East Coast by signing with the Rangers, while Alexei Ponikarovsky assumes Frolov’s roster spot on the Kings.

First, let’s discuss the Frolov signing. My good friend Chris Wassel of The Program had this question on his website today:

Just how many points will Alex Frolov get this year playing with Marian Gaborik?

A. Less than 40

B. 41-50

C. 51-60

D. 61-70

E. over 70

To answer that question, let’s examine Frolov’s stats over the past few seasons. We know that the beginning of the end of his time in LA arrived when he landed in coach Terry Murray’s doghouse earlier this season. If Murray plays fantasy hockey, we don’t blame him for pulling his hair out when the subject of Frolov comes up. Over the last four seasons, Frolov’s point totals have declined from 71 points to 67 points to 59 points to 51 points – a 20-point decline overall. Let’s immediately rule out option E – over 70 points.

Now playing alongside Gaborik will be good for a few more points than what Frolov was able to accomplish last season. How many more points will depend on Gaborik’s health, not to mention the Rangers’ so-so offense. Gaborik was responsible for a high percentage of the Rangers’ offense last season, so the Frolov acquisition will need to be better than the failed Olli Jokinen experiment. But I still feel that I should bet the under on 60 points.

Having said that, I am a strong believer in the contract-year theory. Frolov knows that this could be his last kick at the can in the NHL. Let’s face it: The KHL would be his only real option if he fell below the 50-point mark next season. So I’m going to go with C as my final answer: between 51 and 60 points for Frolov as a New York Ranger.

Meanwhile, Ponikarovsky assumes Frolov’s old roster spot in LA (and the spot that was previously reserved for one Ilya Kovalchuk). He should fit in nicely at least on the second line, and Murray should also give him a crack with Anze Kopitar on the Kings’ first line. The Kings are thought of by many to be the breakout team in the Western Conference, so on the surface, Poni’s fantasy value improves with the move (although that’s what I said when he was traded to Pittsburgh).

Ponikarovsky didn’t pan out in Pittsburgh, having scored just two goals and nine points in 16 regular-season games. He was even a healthy scratch for two games during the playoffs this season. Poni is not afraid to use his size and make hits, which could ultimately be beneficial for Kopitar’s numbers if he creates the time and space needed for the Kings’ franchise forward. After scoring a career-high 61 points with the Leafs in 2008-09, Poni fell to 50 points last season. There’s no reason to think that he won’t post a similar total this season.

By the way, we’ve just started the mock draft for this season’s Draft Guide… I’ll tell you that the first pick was Alex Ovechkin. To find out the rest, you’ll just have to purchase the draft guide when it becomes available in August!

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.

Ryan Kesler

There’s no project like the fixer-upper, because the reward for success is never more satisfying.

It’s like taking an old car left for dead and refurbishing it into that beauty driving down the highway. Or purchasing an old house that has been condemned and renovating it into something that can not only be lived in, but also admired. I don’t fix cars or houses very well (I have only a working knowledge of both, even though I own both), but I’m going to take a stab at refurbishing a fantasy hockey team left for dead.

Since I do not currently run my own dynasty league team (Evan Reynar runs the fantasyhockey.com Experts League keeper team), I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to inherit my own keeper league team, complete with salaries, free agency, and entry draft. The former owner vacated the team after finishing tied for last in with a 4-17-0 record. I don’t let my fantasy league teams slip that far, but it’s clear that I have a lot of work to do if I am to restore this team to contending status. My goal in any league is to finish “in the money,” but judging by the team I have, finishing above .500 for the season will be a success.

As I attempt to put my stamp on this team, I will keep you posted on my progress. If you have any suggestions or comments, feel free to post them below.

League facts

12-team head-to-head points league counting G, A, +/-, TOI, GA, SV, L, SO, W. Positions: 3 C, 3 LW, 3 RW, 5 D, 2 G, 3 BN, 5 minor leaguers. $100 million budget.

The first order of business is to sort out the contracts. I’ve separated the players that I would like to keep from the players I don’t want to keep, both for signed and unsigned players.

Free agent “superstars” with expired contracts (projected salary in parentheses)

Roberto Luongo (11.45), Dan Boyle (14.11), Sergei Gonchar (9.24)

These are players who played for the team last season whose contracts have expired. I would only have to match the highest offer in order to keep the player, but other owners have to exceed my highest offer by 20 percent (called the hometown discount). Luongo underachieved last season, so his salary might make sense (I know I’m biased, since I’m a Canucks fan). I would try to keep one of the two defensemen, although Gonchar’s projected salary makes more sense than Boyle’s.

Signed – to keep

Scott Gomez (3.50), Brenden Morrow (1.87), Drew Stafford (2.14), Thomas Vanek (8.41), Ryan Kesler (1.50), Matt Carle (5.03), Kris Letang (1.99), Brent Seabrook (3.38), Paul Martin (2.70), Cam Ward (2.75)

Thank heaven Gomez’s contract isn’t as hefty as his real-life contract. Morrow, Kesler, and Ward offer solid value at their prices, so I will be hanging onto them for sure. I’m high on Martin this season, since he should inherit the Pens’ power play, which should be more to his liking than New Jersey’s. Vanek’s and Carle’s prices are a little high. If Vanek rebounds to 40-goal form, then his salary will make sense. Carle might receive less icetime this season with the glut of d-men that Philly have, but having Chris Pronger as his defense partner should only help.

Signed – salaries too high (would drop or trade at the right price)

Todd White (5.20), Chris Higgins (2.81)

White scored just seven goals and 26 points last season, which was a huge dropoff from 73 points the season before. Higgins scored just 17 points split between the Rangers and Calgary, down from 52 points two seasons before with Montreal.

Unsigned – offer contracts

Evander Kane (2.33), Alex Pietrangelo (1.10), Derick Brassard (2.94)

Both Kane and Pietrangelo offer sleeper potential as young players – the types of players you want on your keeper league team for solid value. Brassard offers potential, but his (-17) ranking last season is cause for concern.

Unsigned – undecided

Kris Russell (3.41) – Russell’s value this season will depend on whether the Jackets walk away from an arbitrator’s ruling for current power-play QB Anton Stralman.

Unsigned – won’t offer contracts

Owen Nolan (0.50), Rostislav Olesz (2.31)

Nolan may have played his last game, as he remains unsigned by an NHL team. Olesz has never scored more than 30 points in a season, which is due to injuries to some degree. Still, the Panthers have to be running out of patience by now.

To draft

Tyler Seguin (0.50) – Since I have the second overall pick in the entry draft, and since Taylor Hall is being selected with the first overall pick, this one only makes sense. Seguin looks like a great player to build my dynasty league team around, considering that I’m very weak at forward.

One last thing: Don’t forget to check back with fantasyhockey.com for the 2010-11 Draft Guide, which should be available around mid-August.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Compliments? Ideas? Email Ian at ian@fantasyhockey.com. Or follow fantasyhockey.com on Twitter for up-to-the-minute updates, general hockey discussion, and any fantasy hockey questions that you have. You can also become a fan on Facebook.